FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change

Submitted by Karl DeBisschop on Sat, 8 Dec 2007 - 09:59
in

The authors offer "16 Proven Mental Paths to Insight and Foresight" -- they are trying to teach thinking techniques. Unfortunately, their writing suffers from imprecise thinking and disconnected presentations that distract from their ideas, even though their ideas are useful. The book's shortcomings do not lie in the validity of its main points, but in writing that continually reflects unclear thinking and undermines the credibility of the authors.

For example, in the chapter on lowest common denominator thinking, they say "When confronted with 1/5 and 1/7, the tendency is to use 1/6 (halfway between the two) and then wonder why the solutions inevitably fall apart after some period of time." Of course, 6/35 is halfway between the two, not 1/6 (6/36). Though a fifth-grade student has the math skills to correctly do that math, the incorrect statement does not invalidate their thesis. The problem is simply that they make incorrect, unsupported, or unsupportable statements so frequently that their credibility is undermined and the reader comes away with the impression that the book is nothing more than a random list of the authors' personal opinions.

Here are their 16 techniques, to which I will try to add some commentary from the book the I find useful for internalizing the thoughts:

  1. Looking through alien eyes
    Aliens and children view the world without preconceptions. If you don't have an alien handy to help you see problems in a new light, find a kid.
  2. Trend/countertrend
    Trends create countertrends. You can be sure the countertrends will arise, and often they represent a large enough population to form a viable market that just might align with your company's strengths.
  3. Substituting the spiral for the pendulum
  4. Extremes inform the middle
  5. Efficiency breeds vulnerability
  6. New distribution channels multiply markets
  7. Entropy
  8. Integrity begets quality
  9. Law of large numbers
  10. Demography
  11. Compromise versus lowest common denominator
  12. Three-legged stools of the political agenda
  13. Right-of-way
  14. Football meets shopping
  15. Managing by harnessing evolution
  16. Self-defeating and self-fulfilling prophecies

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